The capacity release of the hottest paper industry

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Paper industry: the slow release of production capacity is expected to improve

the domestic paper industry has broad prospects: we believe that the consumption demand of the paper industry will not be lower than the growth rate of GDP in at least recent years. In 2005, China's per capita consumption of paper products was 45 kg, which is a big gap with the global average consumption of 57 kg, and a huge gap with the per capita consumption of about 300 kg in developed countries. In June, the apparent consumption of domestic crude steel in pulp production of domestic enterprises above Designated Size will also decrease by 18.58 million tons at a rate of about 4% per year, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and the production of paper and paperboard will be 49.42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.52%

the domestic paper industry is becoming stronger and stronger: with the continuous production of large-scale production lines and the acceleration of the process of forest paper integration, the competitiveness of the domestic paper industry has been significantly improved. In addition, the rise of global energy prices has promoted the rise of paper prices in developed countries. The comparison of domestic and foreign paper industry strength is conducive to the direction change of domestic paper industry. It can be expected that the large-scale export of China's paper products has just begun

in 2007, the international wood pulp price tended to decline as a whole: in 2006, the international wood pulp trade price basically showed an upward trend. Before the first quarter of 2007, the international wood pulp trade price will not fall, and even may rise further. However, since the second quarter, new pulp mills invested by Brazil, Russia and China in 2004 and 2005 have successively entered the production period

the price of waste paper will be used for bacterial detection and diagnostic devices at a high level: China is the largest buyer of international waste paper trade, accounting for only 50% of the international tradable volume. In 2005, China imported 17.03 million tons of waste paper, an increase of 38.5% year-on-year. Although the appreciation of RMB has curbed the import price of waste paper, it is not enough to fundamentally reverse the possibility that the price of imported waste paper will remain high for a long time

the release of production capacity slows down, and the industry is expected to improve: Although there are some differences among major products, on the whole, with the downturn of product prices in the past two years, investment has slowed down greatly, and the new production capacity in 2007 and 2008 will be significantly reduced. At the same time, there is still strong demand for major products. We believe that coated paper, white cardboard, white paperboard, paper, carton board, corrugated paper, etc. are likely to improve

focus on the company: we continue to maintain the rating of "overweight" of Huatai shares (11.950, -0.27, -2.21%) and Yueyang Paper (10.450,0.01,0.10%), and raise the rating of Meili Paper (8.000, -0.02, -0.25%) from "prudent overweight" to "overweight"

Huatai shares: as the price of paper in the international market is about 100 US dollars/ton higher than that in the domestic market, we believe that the company is more likely to export on a large scale and drive the domestic paper market to improve

Yueyang Paper: having a large number of forestry resources is its main advantage. As the company further knows the characteristics of three materials: for example, marching into forestry and the stable rise in the price of forest products, it will bring huge and stable benefits to the company

Meili Paper: with the strong support of MCC group, the production scale has expanded rapidly. Compared with itself, it is the company with the largest changes in the industry, and its performance has the potential for great changes

reprinted from: Guotai Jun'an Wang Feng

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